baseline_momentum_live_v1 Live Review Package

Generated 2026-06-05T02:08:43.661937+00:00 · read-only review package · no orders submitted

Metric Glossary

Transaction Costs (TC) are estimated fees, spread, slippage, and market-impact assumptions deducted from gross returns. Gross Sharpe Ratio is the annualized return/risk ratio before estimated Transaction Costs. Net Sharpe Ratio is the annualized return/risk ratio after estimated Transaction Costs. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is annualized compounded return. Maximum Drawdown (MaxDD) is the worst peak-to-trough loss. Out-of-Sample (OOS) is the period not used for fitting or tuning. Algorithm Trading (AT) is the offline algorithm/backtest path, Paper Trading (PT) is broker paper-account execution, and Real Trading (RT) is live-money execution.

Review Verdict
needs_fix_before_live_expand
Net Sharpe Ratio
0.833
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
35.49%
Maximum Drawdown (MaxDD)
-57.92%
Current Long
$4,591.23
Latest Signal
2026-06-04

Blocking Ops Findings

Schedule mismatch: docs intend Friday 15:30 America/New_York during daylight saving time, but observed crontab on 2026-06-05 was 30 15 * * 5 /workspace/steve/alpha_vault/scripts/run_ops_baseline_live.sh, which is 15:30 UTC.

Budget mismatch: registered scheduled entrypoint is still --budget 20000 --submit-live, while current Real Trading (RT) exposure was manually reduced to about $5k on 2026-06-03. Do not expand live size until this is reconciled.

Strategy Eval Metrics

MetricValue
Window2022-12-13 to 2026-06-02 · 869 trading days
Gross Sharpe Ratio / Net Sharpe Ratio0.877 / 0.833
Total Return Gross / Net209.99% / 185.03%
Net Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) / Volatility / Maximum Drawdown (MaxDD)35.49% / 54.99% / -57.92%
Out-of-Sample (OOS) Sharpe Ratio3.158 since 2026-01-01
Rolling Sharpe Ratio126 trading-day slow/full-context latest 2.846; 30 trading-day fast/recent latest 7.110
Correlation Matrixmax absolute correlation 0.458; pass<0.8=True
Cost Assumptionannual Transaction Costs (TC) drag 2.43% Net Asset Value per year
Biaslookahead shift test pass=True
Needs InputPaper Trading (PT) / Real Trading (RT) return stream; fill latency, queue position, partial fill assumptions

Eval dashboard · Bias report · Internal report · Summary markdown with glossary

Rolling Sharpe Ratio Chart

Visible chart generated from gross_returns.csv. It shows Algorithm Trading (AT) gross return rolling annualized Sharpe Ratio, not a live broker profit-and-loss stream. Default standard windows are 126 trading days as the slow/full-context line and 30 trading days as the fast/recent line.

-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789 20222023202420252026 Rolling Sharpe Ratio from gross return stream 126 trading days (slow/full context)30 trading days (fast/recent) Annualized Sharpe Ratio X-axis is rolling-window start date; latest window ends 2026-06-02.

Current Live Status

AccountAitist Alpaca Real Trading (RT) live 865201662
Cash$38,917.20
Portfolio value$43,508.43
Open orders0
Configured scheduled budget$20,000.00
Last scheduled rebalance2026-05-29T15:30:24.215181Z
Last manual cap reduce2026-06-03T19:52:54.557080Z

Positions

SymbolQtyMarket ValuePriceUnrealized Profit/Loss
AMD2.124510908$1,074.09$505.57$50.54
LRCX1.744626956$570.49$327.00$13.72
MU1.630618998$1,552.33$951.99$273.10
QCOM3.464310587$824.51$238.00$21.66
SOXX0.976535738$569.81$583.50$17.05
UNH0.000000861$0.00$396.86$0.00

Latest Signal Snapshot

Signal date 2026-06-04 from latest closed daily bar. Public legacy dashboard signal is stale; this page is current for the review package.

Symbol20d MomentumFull Strategy Target WeightCurrent Live State
MU54.35%33.0%held
AMD28.14%17.1%held
SOXX22.39%13.6%held
AMAT22.22%13.5%not held
QCOM19.70%11.9%held
GS18.10%11.0%not held

Real Trading vs Paper Trading Cash Results

Apples-to-apples: NO. No true Paper Trading (PT) mirror return/cash ledger exists for this strategy in the available review artifacts. The closest comparable source is the Algorithm Trading (AT) Strategy Eval simulation, so this section is a diagnostic bridge, not an execution-quality verdict.

FieldReal Trading (RT)Paper Trading (PT) / Comparable Evidence
Account / environmentAitist Alpaca live alpaca_live_main, account 865201662No true PT mirror. Comparable source: AT Strategy Eval using paper/data historical bars.
Comparison window2026-06-03T19:36:34Z light risk-off through 2026-06-05 review snapshot2022-12-13 through 2026-06-02 Strategy Eval window
Starting cash / capital base$22,305.16 before approved 2026-06-03 risk-off/cap-reduce overlays$20,000 assumed sleeve start for cash bridge
Ending cash / ending value$38,917.20 cash in review snapshot; remaining long value about $4,591.23$57,006.80 simulated ending value from net total return
Cashflow / P&LSell-order proceeds about $16,612.41; observed cash change about $16,612.04. Current RT unrealized Profit and Loss (P&L) in remaining baseline symbols about $376.07. Strategy-level realized P&L unavailable without a complete attributed tax-lot/cash ledger.Net simulated P&L about $37,006.80 over the full AT window; realized/unrealized split not applicable to this daily return stream.
Absolute / percentage differenceRT observed unrealized P&L versus AT full-window net simulated P&L: -$36,630.73, or -99.0% relative to AT. This is not a valid PT-vs-RT performance gap because the windows, scale, and overlays differ.
Known causesNo PT mirror; live/paper fill assumptions; slippage; partial fills; timing; account constraints; shared-account attribution; manual light risk-off and cap-reduction overlays on 2026-06-03.

Sources: RT state from /workspace/steve/alpha_vault_ops/data/runtime/memory/strategies/baseline_momentum_live_v1/state.json; public RT snapshot embedded in this page; AT inputs reports/review_packages/baseline_momentum_live_v1_20260603/inputs/; eval summary summary.json; review docs docs/baseline_momentum_live_review_2026-06-05.md.

Strategy Algorithm

Visible end-to-end path from data input to live monitoring. The diagram reflects the canonical scheduled path plus the manual sell-only risk-off override used on 2026-06-03.

1. Data Inputscurrent.yaml universeAlpaca daily bars + SPY 2. Timestamp Cutoffdrop current daily baruse latest closed candle 3. Feature Signal20 trading-day momentumprice / lag price - 1 4. Rank / Filterpositive momentumtop 6, exclude SPY 5. Target Weightsselected momentumdivided by sum 6. Sleeve Sizingtarget dollars = budgetminus ignored baseline qty 7. Risk Controlsmin trade thresholdqty precision + dust rules 8. Schedule GuardFriday close windowflock + duplicate date 9. Order IntentExecutionGatewayclient_order_id prefix 10. Broker SubmitAlpacaBroker onlyno direct submit_order 11. Runtime Logssignals, metrics, ordersStrategyStateStore 12. Monitoringlive status + dashboardreview feedback loop Discretionary Override PathApproved sell-only helpers: light risk-off and pro-rata cap reduction.They refuse buys, new symbols, open-order conflicts, and closed-market submission.

Code Walkthrough

Algorithm Trading / Paper Trading / Real Trading Separation

LayerStatus
Algorithm Trading (AT)Historical Strategy Eval complete through 2026-06-02; P0 pass, P1/P2 contain needs_input items.
Paper Trading (PT)Paper/data account used for historical data; paper return stream is still needs_input.
Real Trading (RT)Live Aitist account active, current exposure near $5k after approved sell-only cap reduction; no open orders in read-only check.

Export Provenance

ItemValue
Metrics producerPAW strategy-eval skill using tools/eval_strategy.py.
Strategy Eval command patternpython tools/eval_strategy.py --positions positions.csv --asset-returns asset_returns.csv --gross-returns gross_returns.csv --metadata-json metadata.json --factor-returns factor_returns.csv --existing-returns existing_returns.csv --strategy-label baseline_momentum_live_v1 --out-dir eval-report
Evaluation inputsreports/review_packages/baseline_momentum_live_v1_20260603/inputs/
Evaluation outputsreports/review_packages/baseline_momentum_live_v1_20260603/eval-report/
Data sourceAlpaca daily bars through tools.ops_baseline_deploy.latest_targets(...); live account read via AlphaVault Ops create_trading_client("live").
Timestamp cutoffCurrent in-progress daily bar is dropped by closed_daily_prices(...); latest signal date shown here is 2026-06-04.
Report producerCustom static HTML generated from Strategy Eval artifacts, gross_returns.csv, and a read-only Real Trading (RT) status snapshot.
Publisher/deploy pathCloudflare Pages project paw-baseline-live-review, deployed from reports/review_packages/baseline_momentum_live_v1_20260605/public/.